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Growing apprehensions have emerged over the potential of military engagement involving East African countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has triggered a intense rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a territorial conflict broke out in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Latest Statements from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated ownership of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and suggested the wish to seize it militarily.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of losing access to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "corrected tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrea's Response to the Threats

In the face of persistent challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to concise remarks on online platforms from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for sea access labeling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of claiming back lost territory.

Eritrean authorities warned on mid-September that moves to justify "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of major military movements in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, government media has broadcast completion events of many recruits at various military training camps.

The head of human resources department of the defense force, the officer, recently said in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Past Background of the Dispute

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian rulers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the UK forces before evolving into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor ended this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year internal conflict followed, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Independence was then approved by voters in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they clashed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, resulting in hostilities in 1998.

Even though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors stayed at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two signed a statement that the hostilities was over – a decision that gained the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then partners in the country's recent armed struggle in Tigray.

But ties have since broken down once more.